英中銀利上げを読み解く

英中銀利上げ予想

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英中銀理事会を終えて

今回の決定は、25bpsの利上げで、政策金利は0.5％へ。投票配分は、9対0。

ただし、9名の理事のうち、5人が25bps利上げ。4人が50bps利上げとなり、5対4で25bps利上げに落ち着きました。

25bps利上げを支持した5名の理事達

25bps利上げを支持した5名の理事達の言い分が議事要旨に書かれていました。

「53. Five members judged that a 0.25 percentage point increase in Bank Rate was warranted at this meeting. The February Report projections implied that some tightening in monetary policy was required to bring inflation back to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term. However, the forecast also incorporated a material trade-off related to the continuing global energy and tradable goods price shock, with CPI inflation expected to remain materially above the target in the first half of the forecast, at the same time as a margin of spare capacity was opening up. After the second year, conditioned on the market path for Bank Rate, CPI inflation was projected to fall below the target due to that widening margin of spare capacity. In the scenario in which energy prices followed their forward curves throughout the forecast period, inflation was projected to undershoot the target by ¾ percentage point in two and three years’ time. These members recognised the risks from the possibility of stronger domestic wage and price pressures in the near term, but also saw a need to balance this against the potential for inflation to fall more quickly and to a greater extent than expected if energy and other tradable goods prices followed a lower path than in the MPC’s central projection. There was also a case for moving Bank Rate in small increments; a larger increase at this meeting could have an outsized impact on expectations for the further path of policy, which was already sufficient, in the central projection, to push inflation well below the target in year three of the forecast.」

まとめると、インフレ目標の2％に物価を安定させるためには、今回の利上げは必要であった。四半期金融政策報告書の予想期間（2024年まで）の前半期間は、エネルギー価格とインフレが上昇する傍ら、経済／労働市場の緩みは拡大し、それぞれ相殺効果が出てくる可能性がある。予想期間後半については、この緩みの影響で、インフレ率は目標よりも下回ることが予想される。

25bps利上げを選択した理事達は、目先の賃上げ要求や物価上昇リスクと、中期的なインフレ下落リスクやエネルギー価格が予想外に落ち着く可能性とのバランスを取る意味で、25bpsという利上げ幅を選択したそうです。

もう一点書かれていることとしては、今回50bps幅で利上げをした場合、将来の利上げ観測が、よりアグレッシブなものとなってしまう点を危惧したとも書かれています。

50bps利上げを支持した4名の理事達

次は、50bps利上げを支持した4名の理事達の言い分です。

「54. Four members judged that a 0.5 percentage point increase in Bank Rate was warranted at this meeting. Monetary policy had been very accommodative, and capacity pressures were now widespread, especially in the labour market. The projected path for CPI inflation was again being revised up over the first two years of the forecast period, while medium-term inflation expectations remained relatively high and on some measures had increased further. Companies responding to the Decision Maker Panel had indicated that they expected to raise prices significantly in 2022. The strong pickup in pay settlements reported to the Bank’s Agents, and the recent broadening from goods price to services price inflation, suggested that these developments were now being reflected in domestic costs and prices, which could make CPI inflation more persistent than was expected in the February Report central projection. Monetary policy should tighten to a greater extent at this meeting in order to reduce the risk that recent trends in pay growth and inflation expectations became more firmly embedded and thereby help to bring inflation back to the target sustainably in the medium term.」

この方々の言い分としては、今までの金融政策はあまりにも緩和的過ぎたこと、特に労働市場の緩みがタイトになってきていることを挙げています。

先ほど紹介した企業を対象とした調査でも、2022年は相当の勢いで物価が上がり、賃金も上がると語っていたことを例に上げ、このまま行けば物価上昇の勢いは強くなるばかりで、いつまで経っても消費者物価指数（CPI）が英中銀のインフレ目標に近づかないリスクがあるとしています。

そして、今回大きく利上げをし、インフレ率をある程度押さえこまなければ、賃上げがますます加速して取り返しがつかなくなるとも書いてありました。

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